Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Anwar's victory: truth or fiction?

What I heard was that he already has 3o MPs crossing over..
Is it true or just some scare, so more people will cross over?

Please take a look at the numbers,
now PR has 82 MPs (if not mistaken), all quite evenly distributed between PKR, DAP and PAS
However Barisan has 140 seats...
So in numbers, they need around 30 MPs to cross over, right?

With numbers, then yes this is true..
It is the truth that they can form a government (because of the recent stupidity, racial comments and loyalty signing) by selecting either the MCA, Gearakan or MIC to cross..
They can also pull over maybe SAPP or other MPs from Sabah and Sarawak, due to the loyalty issue. (A total of 74 MPs)
It would not be that difficult, I think..
So this is the truth, a high percentage that a government can be formed..

However, that is not the big picture..
It may be fiction that Anwar can actually bring forward this idea...
Reasons? Here you go:
1) A bigger non-Malay majority
-UMNO would soooo love this to happen.. That would create a major uproar.. The problem with UMNO is that none of the MPs would(or may) cross over, which is a problem.. As Tun Mahathir said himself, they are too chicken or scared to lose their post.. The non-Malays on the other hand have no choice...
If they do not leave after all that has happened, they know they will lose everything and all support....
This would be a big problem, if the non-Malays have a bigger majority, all hell will break loose..
Malays are somewhat, always worried of a take-over, and this may be it...

2) Don't know what they are thinking
-Only Gerakan has shown signs of crossing over... However, the other component parties, such as MCA, most likely are useless creatures of nature.. They do not step up, just like UMNO..
The Sabah and Sarawak people may be even harder.. Although the government let them live in poverty, but now the Budget '09 has given them a few billion... I think it is some type of a bribe for loyalty, after all that has happened..
After all, money makes the world go round!

3) DSAI's plan
-I don't know!!! No one knows.. I hope he knows and has one.. Thats the problem, is he secretive, all is it a bluff? If it is, and he does not deliver by the 16th, then all is lost... He will be known as someone who brings out false hope.. That is bad..

I am worried...
Sometimes, Anwar has a sneaky wicked smile(that i really prefer) but sometimes he also looks uncertain and not-that-confident, which worries me... Can he actually do it?

I really hope so..

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